“We will probably observe a course correction in both the political and economic spheres…”
Leandro Consentino is a professor in the Advanced Program in Public Management at Insper, has a bachelor’s degree in international relations, a M.Sc. and a Ph.D. in political science from the University of São Paulo.
Leandro Consentino, professor at Insper
AgriBrasilis – What is expected to change between US x Brazil relations because of Trump’s re-election?
Leandro Consentino – We will probably observe a course correction in both the political and economic spheres. In the political field, there are clear differences between Lula’s government, the current president of Brazil, and the future Trump administration, especially after criticism from the Brazilian president even before the election. In the economic sphere, the difficulty should come from the fact that Trump promises protectionist policies, which will create barriers for the entry of Brazilian products into the North American market.
AgriBrasilis – Could it become more difficult to sell to the US?
Leandro Consentino – Of course, it could become more complicated due to the protectionist barriers promised by Donald Trump. The Republican promised higher tariffs to protect the United States’ domestic market and such a policy creates greater difficulties for free trade, in clear opposition to the ideas of economic liberalism. Therefore, this could force Brazil and other countries to seek to further diversify their trading partners.
AgriBrasilis – What about agribusiness?
Leandro Consentino – Agribusiness should also be affected by this protectionist policy, but it is necessary to bear in mind that this can happen in an ambivalent way. On the one hand, tariff barriers should hinder the entry of agricultural products into the North American market at competitive prices. On the other hand, USA’s protectionism, if extended across the globe, could create opportunities for Brazilian agribusiness to establish negotiations with other countries.
AgriBrasilis – What’s different now when compared to the scenario at the time of Trump’s first victory?
Leandro Consentino – There are some clear local and international differences. Firstly, Donald Trump’s victory was more significant than in 2016, gaining a majority position in the National Congress, having the majority of the Supreme Court on his side and the majority of popular votes. Furthermore, after learning from his first term, he will probably surround himself with more loyal allies and, therefore, with people that are more willing to put his boldest plans into practice.
Likewise, the world has also changed in these eight years. There is a scenario of international wars, but without a pandemic spread across the planet. In Brazil, Trump had a president clearly aligned with his ideas, while, currently, Lula has already made harsh criticisms regarding the now new president, even recklessly declaring a vote for his opponent, which could make bilateral relations more difficult.
AgriBrasilis – Should relations with China become more important for Brazil now?
Leandro Consentino – In a scenario in which the USA takes a more isolationist stance in politics and protectionist stance with its economy, the obvious candidate to occupy this space in relations with Brazil is certainly China.
As our main trading partners and as allies in important geopolitical initiatives such as BRICS+, the Chinese must become an increasing priority in our foreign policy in both the economic and political areas. Such alignment, however, needs to take place as part of the Brazilian national interest, avoiding puerile and pernicious anti-Americanism, which is practiced by some authorities who conduct Brazilian foreign policy.
AgriBrasilis – Could there be a trade war scenario between the US and China similar to 2018?
Leandro Consentino – The trade war between the USA and China at the end of the previous decade was initially caused by Donald Trump’s proposals for tariff protectionism, extending to a dispute over information technology between the two countries. In the current scenario, both trends seem to be growing again, whether due to the resurgence of commercial defense measures or the imbroglio in the regulation of big techs and artificial intelligence tools.
If the Cold War of the second half of the 20th century, between the USA and the USSR, focused on the aerospace race, this new confrontation may be linked to information technology which, combined with protectionism in the agricultural and industrial sectors, will certainly produce more or less severe shocks in relations between USA and China, the two great superpowers of the 21st century.
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