“…a shift in Chinese demand to Brazilian products, especially soybeans…”
Enilson Nogueira is a consultant and market analyst at the agricultural consulting firm Céleres, an economist with an MSc. in agricultural economics from Esalq/USP.
Nogueira is responsible for monitoring the soybean, corn, cotton markets, and related markets/industries.
AgriBrasilis – What are the impacts of the Trump administration on the grain market?
Enilson Nogueira – The Trump administration increases the chances of a trade war resumption between the US and China, especially with the imposition of trade barriers on other partners, such as Mexico and Canada. This became clearer when the decision to resume or increase US agricultural export tariffs to China was announced in early March 2025. The direct effect is a shift in Chinese demand for Brazilian products, mainly soybeans, as China is the largest consumer and processor of Brazilian grains, importing over 80% of the volume needed for its industrial sector. This would be positive for increasing the demand for Brazilian soybeans amid the record harvest in 2025, supporting local prices. On the other hand, uncertainties brought by the government change add complexity to decision-making in the local market, reflecting higher price volatility and impacting the exchange rate.
AgriBrasilis – Has the devaluation of the Brazilian Real (BRL) been beneficial for agriculture?
Enilson Nogueira – The devaluation has two sides. Historically, the impact is positive because it increases revenues more than costs. A weaker Brazilian Real helps sustain export product prices, like soybeans, corn, cotton, and animal protein, making Brazilian products cheaper in dollar terms. However, there is an increase in agricultural costs due to imported inputs like fertilizers and pesticides, which will affect farmers when buying inputs for the 2025/26 season.
AgriBrasilis – How have the uncertainties about the planting of the offseason corn affected the market?
Enilson Nogueira – The local market is already operating above export parity, especially in regions with higher consumption of cereal, such as ethanol plants and animal protein companies. Besides planting delays, the uncertainty now is about rainfall volumes in March, April, and May. On the positive side, the State of Mato Grosso has had rain as expected. On the other hand, parts of the States of Minas Gerais, Goiás, and Mato Grosso do Sul had prolonged dry periods from late February to early March 2025. The performance of the second corn crop will be the main factor in setting corn prices in the local market in 2025.
AgriBrasilis – Why can corn be blamed for the rise in egg prices?
Enilson Nogueira – Corn, being a significant component in production costs, directly impacts egg and animal protein prices. Therefore, the increase in corn prices raises production costs, impacting supply and supporting egg prices. However, other factors also influence prices. Seasonally, egg prices rise between Carnival and Lent due to increased consumption during this period. Additionally, the devalued Brazilian Real and high interest rates also affect costs, contributing to price increases in the local market.
AgriBrasilis – What factors have caused the increase in corn prices?
Enilson Nogueira – The main factor is the low stock carryover from 2024 to 2025. Last year, low corn prices reduced planting areas and the technological package adopted by farmers, decreasing supply at a time of positive margins and growing local demand, especially from ethanol plants and the animal feed and production industries. Additionally, the devaluation of the Brazilian Real and climate risks in the second crop of 2024/25 increased due to planting delays early in the year.
AgriBrasilis – What are the prospects for the Brazilian grain sector in 2025?
Enilson Nogueira – The overall scenario is of higher prices, especially for corn, and normalization of margins in soybean and corn production, supported by the devaluation of the Brazilian Real and additional external demand due to the US government change. Furthermore, logistics will continue to be a challenge in 2025. Increased grain and agricultural product production will raise freight costs, increase storage deficits in inland areas, and pressure port capacity.
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