“…losses will occur in the 2024/25 wheat season, because the period for planting is running out and the soil, even in non-flooded areas, has too much moisture…”
Rubens Barbosa is the executive president of the Brazilian Association of Wheat Industry – Abitrigo and the CEO of the Institute of Trade Relations and Foreign Trade – Irice. Barbosa has a law degree from Faculdade Nacional de Direito, a M.Sc. in international politics from the London School of Economics and Political Science.
Rubens Barbosa, executive president of Abitrigo
Agrabrasilis – Of how much are the losses in the wheat sector caused by floods in the State of Rio Grande do Sul?
Rubens Barbosa – Losses so far are focused on the industry, that is, the mills that have been affected by floods with the loss of inventory, destruction of machines, equipment and silos.
Surely losses will occur in the 2024/25 wheat season, because the period for planting is running out and the soil, even in non-flooded areas, has too much moisture, impairing sowing. This adds to difficulties from before the flooding, which involve a lack of seeds due to problems in the previous season (also from too much rain). It is not possible at this time to predict the size of the impacts on the crop.
“Wheat imports in Brazil should maintain the level of recent years, around six million tonnes”
AgriBrasilis – What is the proportion of affected mills?
Rubens Barbosa – Of the mills in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, only 4 are members of Abitrigo. The vast majority of mills that were not flooded were indirectly impacted by the interruptions of the roads, making it difficult to deliver and receive products.
AgriBrasilis – Will floods delay the planting of the wheat crops?
Rubens Barbosa – The sowing of wheat in the State of Rio Grande do Sul begins at the end of May/early June. In some regions, depending on soil conditions (humidity), there may be some delay.
AgriBrasilis – How will prices be affected?
Rubens Barbosa – Prices in Brazil follow international prices. Internal conditions in Russia and Argentina have influenced on the definition of this price, as they are two strong countries in grain production and export.
Regardless of the flooding, the price of Argentine wheat rose 32% in dollars in the last 60 days and the US currency rose 2.4% in this same period, because of the international market conjuncture. This means that the price of imported wheat, which directly affects flour prices in Brazil, rose 32.8%.
The floods are just another factor and the increase has not yet been accounted for by the industry. The effect of world prices will be the dominant influence on product prices.
AgriBrasilis – Is it necessary to increase wheat imports? Why?
Rubens Barbosa – Wheat imports in Brazil should maintain the level of recent years, of around six million tonnes.
It turns out that the origin of imported wheat should change in 2024, due to substantial increase in prices in Argentina, and a reduction of availability and quality of wheat from that country.
Brazilian supply will depend on the increase in imports from Russia, USA and Canada, which have tariff barriers that will increase wheat prices.
Agrabrasilis – What can be done to reduce the impacts on crops?
Rubens Barbosa – Wheat crops so far have not been affected because the sowing has not begun. Even so, problems with transportation and logistics will have to be taken into account.
Agrabrasilis – What are the prospects for the next Brazilian wheat crop?
Rubens Barbosa – According to the National Supply Company – Conab, the next crop should maintain the level of 9 million tonnes. This amount may be reduced depending on the result of the wheat production from the State of Rio Grande do Sul.
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