“It is not merely a matter of replacing corn, but of diversifying the system and more securely occupying environments where corn begins to pose a high economic risk…”
Vinícius Pereira Guimarães is the General Manager of Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation – Embrapa Maize and Sorghum. He holds a degree in Animal Science from the Federal University of Viçosa (UFV) and a degree in Business Administration/Foreign Trade from the Viçosa College. Guimarães holds M.Sc. and Ph.D. in Animal Production from UFV, having completed a research period abroad at Texas A&M University.
AgriBrasilis – What has driven the 32.9% growth in sorghum acreage in Brazil?
Vinícius Pereira Guimarães – This growth stems from a combination of agronomic and market factors. Sorghum is establishing itself as a viable alternative for the second crop, particularly when delays in the soybean harvest shorten the optimal planting window for corn. The crop offers greater tolerance to water stress, a growth cycle suited to higher-risk environments, and generally lower establishment costs. Other contributing factors include increased seed availability, greater technical expertise, demand for animal feed, interest from the ethanol industry, and the opening of the Chinese market. Therefore, the goal is not merely to replace corn, but to diversify the cropping system and more securely utilize environments where corn production poses a high economic risk.
AgriBrasilis – Is the demand for animal feed sufficient to sustain this growth?
Vinícius Pereira Guimarães – Animal feed is the primary driver of the Brazilian sorghum market and can absorb significant volumes, as the grain partially replaces corn in feed formulations—provided that nutritional composition, price, and supply consistency are taken into account. However, to sustain a production level that has already reached 7.35 million tonnes and to ensure continued growth, diversifying demand is essential. We need to expand its use in animal feed while also developing markets for ethanol, human consumption, and exports. The challenge lies in transforming the expansion of cultivated acreage into an organized supply chain featuring contracts, storage facilities, quality standardization, and greater market liquidity. Increasing production without establishing a structured commercialization system could put downward pressure on prices and discourage farmers.
AgriBrasilis – Why is productivity expected to fall by 9.4%, even with the increase in acreage?
Vinícius Pereira Guimarães – The latest survey by Conab indicates a 9.4% reduction, from 3,739 to 3,388 kilograms per hectare. This is largely because the expansion occurred precisely in areas with later planting schedules and higher climate risk. In the states of Goiás, Minas Gerais, Piauí, Maranhão, and Tocantins, some crops faced water deficits, including during reproductive stages. There were also localized instances of disease and adverse weather events. A compositional effect is also at play: the rapid incorporation of more marginal áreas, or areas planted outside the optimal window, lowers the national average. Even so, production is growing by 20.4%. This demonstrates the crop’s resilience but also reinforces that drought tolerance does not mean an absence of response to management or climate conditions.
AgriBrasilis – Which Embrapa research projects are supporting this expansion?
Vinícius Pereira Guimarães – Embrapa operates on several fronts. In terms of genetic improvement, it develops and evaluates hybrids adapted to the second crop season, offering yield stability, tolerance to water stress, and suitability for various purposes, such as grain, forage, sweet, and biomass sorghum. We also work on Agricultural Climate Risk Zoning (ZARC), the definition of planting windows, soil fertility, plant population, and integrated pest, disease, and weed management. Regarding value addition, we conduct research for animal and human nutrition, silage, ethanol, and bioenergy. A significant initiative was the launch of the Low-Carbon Sorghum Program, which seeks private-sector partners to establish measurable indicators for recognizing efficient and sustainable systems. Research must cover the entire value chain: from genetics to the market.
AgriBrasilis – When is sorghum more competitive than second-crop corn?
Vinícius Pereira Guimarães – Sorghum becomes especially competitive when planting occurs after the low-risk window for corn has closed, when there is a higher probability of water deficit, or in soils with lower water-holding capacity. Under these conditions, its superior water-use efficiency, root system, and lower production costs can offer a better return-to-risk ratio. Furthermore, sorghum is not susceptible to the corn stunt complex and produces high-quality crop residue. However, it should not be treated as a crop of last resort. It requires implementation in accordance with ZARC guidelines, using suitable seed, proper soil amendment and fertilization, effective weed and pest control, and, ideally, with a buyer already lined up. In favorable environments and within the ideal planting window, corn’s higher yield potential remains an advantage.
AgriBrasilis – To what extent is the Chinese market expected to boost Brazilian production?
Vinícius Pereira Guimarães – The potential is immense. China accounts for about 80% of global sorghum imports, with purchases estimated at approximately 7.5 million tonnes, a volume comparable to Brazil’s entire current production. The bilateral protocol is now in effect, opening a new trade frontier capable of delivering scale, liquidity, and an additional price benchmark. However, sanitary market access does not automatically translate into shipments. It will be necessary to certify facilities, strictly adhere to phytosanitary requirements, and ensure traceability, standardization, proper storage, logistics, and a steady supply at competitive prices. While China could significantly accelerate expansion, it should not be the sole pillar. Healthier growth will stem from a combination of animal feed, ethanol production, new applications, and exports to diverse markets.
READ MORE: