“The sector faced a 6.7% reduction in exports between January and November 2025…”
Josemar Franco Pessoa Júnior is international trade manager at BMJ associated consultants (BMJ Consultores Associados) and international trade director of the Brazilian Institute of International Trade, Investment and Sustainability.
Pessoa Júnior is graduated in international relations from the Catholic University of Brasília, with an MBA in foreign trade management and international business from FGV (Fundação Getulio Vargas).
Josemar Franco, international trade manager at BMJ
AgriBrasilis – Did brazilian agribusiness overcome the U.S. “tariff hike”??
Josemar Pessoa – Brazilian agribusiness has not “overcome” the tariff hike imposed by the USA. The sector faced a 6.7% reduction in exports between January and November 2025, generating a trade deficit of US$ 7.9 billion. Some losses were offset by redirection to markets such as China, which grew 41% in Brazilian imports, but the negative impact remains, especially in sensitive products such as meat and orange juice. The adaptation is partial, limited by regulatory barriers and logistical costs. Despite resilience and diversification, the tariff shock requires commercial and diplomatic strategies to mitigate losses and structural vulnerabilities in the medium and long term.
AgriBrasilis – Which segments were most affected and which products are still overtaxed? Why?
Josemar Pessoa – The U.S. tariff hike heavily hit segments of agribusiness and industry with high dependency on that market, such as coffee, meat, orange juice, furniture and machinery, raising costs and reducing competitiveness. Although the partial revocation of tariffs for some of these products has eased the impact, the selectivity of the measure aims to protect American domestic sectors and pressure trade negotiations. The impact reflects the decline in exports of certain products and alters Brazilian commercial strategies, which seek to reduce costs and diversify markets.
AgriBrasilis – How much is Brazil losing due to the “tariff hike”?
Josemar Pessoa – The U.S. tariff hike continues to affect more than 62% of Brazilian exports. Only 37% of Brazilian exports are not subject to some type of the new tariffs. The new tariff scenario has generated a significant increase in costs, reducing competitiveness and profitability, especially in vulnerable chains such as furniture and machinery and equipment. The impact is not only in the reduction of exported volume, but also in the renegotiation of contracts, the redirection of shipments and structural difficulties for investments and strategies. This highlights the potential for a profound economic shock on the Brazil–U.S. bilateral agenda.
AgriBrasilis – Which products had their tariffs reduced? Are the effects of this reduction already being felt by exporters?
Josemar Pessoa – The tariff reductions of November 2025 primarily benefited beef and poultry, coffee and tropical fruits such as mango, pineapple, coconut and açai, which were previously subject to an additional 40% rate. The measure restored competitiveness to products that accounted for billions in exports. It also brought greater predictability to items previously classified in mixed brackets of 40% or 10%. The effects are already appearing in practice: partial recovery of volumes, renegotiation of contracts and reduction of financial losses, although more than 62% of the Brazilian agenda still faces tariffs. The impact is gradual and depends on logistical and strategic adjustments, but it strengthens sensitive chains such as meat and coffee, encourages investment in logistics and value addition and signals greater stability in Brazil–U.S. trade relations. In summary, the relief is concrete for agricultural sectors, but full recovery requires market diversification and continuous management of production chains.
AgriBrasilis – Which countries began supplying the USA in place of Brazil?
Josemar Pessoa – The 2025 tariff hike did not generate a direct substitution of Brazil by new countries, but reinforced the role of suppliers already traditional to the USA. In coffee, although Brazil exported US$ 1.9 billion in 2024 (7.6 million bags), other countries already participated in the American market, such as Colombia and Vietnam. In meat, Australia, New Zealand and Canada, with consolidated agreements, remain as relevant suppliers. In the tropical fruit segment, countries such as Ecuador and Costa Rica maintain a stable position, while Mexico and Canada appear as strategic partners in eggs and emergency proteins. Chile and Peru also continue to supply wines, temperate fruits and forest products. In summary, the data indicate that the USA already had a diversified network of origins and that the tariff hike strengthened the presence of these traditional partners, without pointing to a specific substitution of Brazil.
AgriBrasilis – Which other markets absorbed Brazilian exports?
Josemar Pessoa – With the U.S. tariff hike in 2025, Brazil redirected exports to already traditional markets, with an emphasis on China, which absorbed US$ 8.27 billion in November (a 41% increase over 2024) and accumulated US$ 92.91 billion in the year, consolidating itself as the main destination, especially for soy, meat and forest products. The European Union maintained relevance, but with a contraction of 11.6% in November, reflecting strict sanitary and environmental requirements. In Latin America, Argentina (US$ 1.23 billion) and Mexico (US$ 654 million) remain strategic partners, though without significant growth linked to the tariffs. Other markets, such as the Middle East and Africa, appear in specific segments, but without evidence of significant absorption in 2025. In summary, diversification reduced part of the losses, but only China showed clear expansion, while the European Union and neighbors maintained stable flows without fully replacing the space lost in the United States.
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