“The crisis in the grain and oilseed sector deepens: production, which stood at 36.2 million tonnes in 2026, is expected to fall to…”
Juan Carlos Anaya Castellanos is the CEO of Grupo Consultor de Mercados Agrícolas – GCMA, holding a degree in Business Administration from Universidad Tecnológica de México.
Juan Castellanos, CEO at GCMA
AgriBrasilis – Is the Mexican agricultural sector currently undergoing a crisis?
Juan Anaya – In 2023, the total production of grains and oilseeds in Mexico was 294 million tonnes. In 2024, it dropped to 284.3 million and the GCMA’s estimate for 2025 is 282 million tonnes, a further reduction of 0.8%.
The crisis in the grain and oilseed sector is deepening: production, which stood at 36.2 million tonnes in 2024, is expected to fall to 34.4 million in 2025, the lowest volume since 2006. Currently, Mexico only produces 42% of its grains and oilseeds and is the second largest importer globally, only trailing China.
AgriBrasilis – Does the dependence on imported corn represent the greatest challenge for Mexican agriculture?
Juan Anaya – Yes. For the third consecutive year, Mexico is projected to be the world’s largest corn importer, with estimated imports of 24.9 million tonnes. The food security index is concerning: the country only produces 49% of the corn it consumes and the 2025 harvest is expected to be the smallest since 2012, at 23.31 million tonnes. As of September 2025, 19.4 million tonnes had already been imported, only 87 thousand of which originated in Brazil.
AgriBrasilis – Is the decline in wheat production also a cause for concern?
Juan Anaya – Yes. Wheat production reached its lowest level in the last 40 years, at only 1.79 million tonnes. The food self-sufficiency indicator has plummeted: in 1994 it was 76% and today it stands at only 22%
AgriBrasilis – Are agricultural credit and insurance the only ways to tackle the crisis?
Juan Anaya – Access to credit is critical: only 8% of farmers manage to secure financing and the closure of the Financiera Rural during the previous administration exacerbated the problem. Regarding insurance, only 3% of farmers have coverage. Credit and insurance support programs have been eliminated since 2019, which leaves the sector more vulnerable.
AgriBrasilis – How has Mexico been dealing with protectionism from the United States?
Juan Anaya – It is a relationship of resistance, but also one of complementarity. Despite the pressures from President Trump, the United States and Mexico are strategic partners and neighbors. In 2024, 90% of Mexican agri-food exports were destined for the U.S., totaling US$ 49 billion, while Mexico imported US$ 30 billion worth of North American agri-food products. For farmers of corn, wheat, soybean meal, pork, chicken and milk, Mexico is one of the main buyers.
AgriBrasilis – Is there room to diversify markets?
Juan Anaya – Yes, provided that the new markets are economically viable. Mexico has a significant logistical advantage over many countries attempting to access the North American market—the largest in the world in terms of consumption. Products such as fruits, vegetables, beer and tequila continue to lead exports.
AgriBrasilis – What policies could ensure greater productivity and competitiveness for Mexican farmers?
Juan Anaya – It is necessary for support programs to be focused on production, by reinstating mechanisms for financing, insurance, infrastructure, technology and technical assistance that expand the supply of basic grains. It is also essential to direct more resources toward water infrastructure and agricultural health, which are pillars of the sector’s predictability and competitiveness.