Brazilian Grain Production Expected to Reach a Record 358.6 Million Tonnes in 2025/26
The commercialization of Argentina’s 2025/26 soybean is advancing cautiously, with only 21% of estimated production priced, the lowest level in more than 30 years. According to the Rosario Board of Trade, prices below the historical average, pressured industry margins and strong liquidation of positions by funds in Chicago have limited price fixing and weighed on quotations. (Rosario Board of Trade)
El Niño may benefit Argentina’s 2026/27 crop season. The National Meteorological Service points to approximately a 90% chance of an El Niño phase between June and August. In Argentina, the phenomenon usually increases rainfall and temperatures, which may benefit well-drained agricultural areas. For wheat, the Secretariat of Agriculture estimates 6.6 million hectares in 2026/27, with good soil moisture, while the Rosario Board of Trade projects output of up to 20 million tonnes under normal weather conditions. (NOAA/CPC; SMN; SAGyP; BCR)
Agroindustry recorded a net foreign exchange inflow of US$ 12.04 billion from goods trade in the first four months of 2026, up 8.6% from the same period in 2025. According to the Rosario Board of Trade, the oilseed and grain complex accounted for US$ 7.59 billion, approximately two-thirds of the agroindustrial balance. Together, agroindustry, mining and energy generated a net US$ 17.61 billion, a record for the period. (BCR)
Brazilian grain production to reach 358.6 million tonnes in the 2025/26 season, according to the 9th Conab’s survey, which is expected to set a new historical record. The projection represents a 1.8% increase from the previous season, driven by expanded planted area, estimated at 83.5 million hectares, and favorable weather conditions, especially for soybeans and corn. (Conab)
Agribusiness exports totaled US$ 16 billion in May of 2026, up 8.2% from the same month last year, accounting for 50.2% of the country’s total exports. From January to May, the sector reached US$ 70.5 billion, a historical record for the period, driven by soybeans, meats and market diversification. (MAPA)
The Minister of Agriculture, André de Paula, highlighted the opening of 641 new markets for Brazilian agribusiness products and the potential of the Mercosur-EU agreement to expand exports. The debate also covered sustainability, rural credit, crop insurance and climate risk management as strategic factors for the sector’s competitiveness. (MAPA)
Paddy rice prices fell again in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, interrupting the recovery observed in early June. The pressure is driven by ample cereal availability and difficulties in marketing processed rice, which limit buying activity by industries, despite still-active international demand. (Cepea)
Brazil’s National Bank for Economic and Social Development approved US$ 96.97 million to finance the construction of a new corn ethanol plant by FS in Campo Novo do Parecis, State of Mato Grosso. The unit will have annual capacity to process up to 1.2 million tonnes of corn and produce up to 540 million liters of ethanol, as well as dried distillers grains, a protein- and fiber-rich co-product used in animal feed. (BNDES)
Cosan reported that Radar sold 12% of its own agricultural land portfolio in the State of Mato Grosso to an undisclosed buyer. The transaction involves 41,214 hectares for soybean, corn and cotton and has a total value of US$ 358.99 million. According to the company, approximately US$ 113.79 million corresponds to Cosan’s economic stake in the sale, which remains subject to the fulfillment of previous conditions. (Cosan; CVM)
The Department of Rural Economy of the State of Paraná reported the 2025/26 second corn harvest is moving slowly in the State. By mid-June, approximately 14 thousand hectares had been harvested, less than 1% of the 2.9 million hectares planted. According to the agency, 24% of the area is already in the final development stage, but excess cloudy days and low temperatures require caution regarding yield potential. The second crop estimate remains at approximately 17.5 million tonnes. (Deral/Seab-PR)
El Niño is expected to increase climate risks for Brazil’s 2026/27 crop season. The event is likely to strengthen in the 2H26 and may continue through the end of the year. In Brazil, El Niño usually causes higher drought risk in the North and Northeast and above-average rainfall in the South. This could affect soybean planting, the second corn crop window and crops such as sugarcane, coffee and citrus. (NOAA/CPC; WMO; INMET)
Brazil consolidated position among the world’s largest pork exporters in 2025, surpassing Canada in shipped volume. According to the Brazilian Animal Protein Association, Brazilian pork exports reached 1.51 million tonnes in the year, up 11.6%, with revenue of US$ 3.62 billion. In the domestic market, the Brazilian Association of Pig Farmers projects a record consumption of 20.2 kg per capita in 2025. (ABPA; ABCS)
The Agricultural and Livestock Service advanced in electronic phytosanitary and zoosanitary certification through new digital agreements with Uruguay and Israel. The system will enable zoosanitary certification for poultry and pork exports to Uruguay and phytosanitary certification for horticultural, forestry and propagation material exports to Israel, improving traceability and efficiency in Chilean agricultural trade. (SAG)
Chile strengthened traceability and environmental standards in its dried plum chain, which exports to around 80 markets. The country completed the first Clean Production Agreement for processing plants and launched a new stage focused on farmers. The initiative aims to prepare the entire chain for stricter international requirements on water efficiency, energy use, waste management, climate adaptation and sustainable production. (Odepa)
Colombia’s coffee production recovered in May, but has not yet reversed the decline accumulated during the year. According to the National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia, the country produced 1.06 million 60-kg bags in the month, up 29% from May 2025. From January to May, however, Colombian output fell 19% to 4.3 million bags, while exports dropped 22% to 4.15 million bags. (FNC)
Colombia’s Daabon Group completed the acquisition of 100% of Agropalma’s operations in the State of Pará, Brazil, marking the entry in the Brazil’s palm oil market. The transaction includes plantation and forest reserve areas, six extraction plants in Tailândia and a refinery in the city of Belém. Agropalma’s unit in the city of Limeira, State of São Paulo, was not included in the deal and will operate independently. Agropalma produces palm oil, palm kernel oil and derivatives for food, cosmetics and oleochemicals. (Agropalma; Daabon Group)
The Agricultural Institute of Colombian granted six new Biosecure Commercial Poultry Farm certifications in the department of Atlántico, Colombia. As a result, 55 of the region’s 71 registered poultry farms now hold sanitary certification. The measure strengthens biosecurity controls in broiler, layer and genetic material units, with a focus on disease prevention and avian salmonellosis surveillance. (ICA)
Exports of agri-food to the USA lost momentum ahead of discussions on the agricultural chapter of the USMCA. Mexican sales to the US market fell 9.8% in 2025, to US$ 43.8 billion. The decline affected products such as distilled spirits, vegetables and food preparations. Even so, Mexico remained the United States’ largest agricultural trading partner in total trade, led by vegetables, fruit, beverages and distilled spirits. (USDA/ERS; USTR)
The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, in Mexico, and Catholic Relief Services (CRS) launched an alliance to prepare Mexican smallholder farmers for the impacts of El Niño. The initiative includes technical training, use of climate-adapted seeds, water and soil management, and early warning systems to reduce losses in crops such as corn, beans, wheat, rice and sorghum. The World Meteorological Organization estimates a high probability of El Niño developing from June to August 2026. (CIMMYT; CRS; WMO)
The Chamber of Exporters and Traders of Grains and Oilseeds – Capeco from Paraguay warned the country needs to monitor the possible development of El Niño at the beginning of the Southern Hemisphere spring, following gradual warming in the Equatorial Pacific. According to the organization, if the trend is confirmed, the event could favor above-normal rainfall and milder temperatures in the Eastern Region during the 2026/27 spring-summer crop season, while the Chaco could face the opposite scenario, with below-average rainfall and more intense heat. Capeco stressed that the risk requires monitoring, but should not be treated as a “Super El Niño” at this stage. (Capeco; WMO; NOAA/CPC)
Construction began in Acobamba, Huancavelica, on a facility dedicated to processing native potatoes for the Unión Pomavilca Association. The project will cover 570 m², require an investment of approximately US$ 79 thousand and have a 54-day execution period, aiming to add value to local production and expand potato industrialization in the region. (Argenpapa)
Peru’s agricultural sector still faces bottlenecks in irrigation, certified seeds, technical training, formalization and farmer associations. The activity accounts for 22.5% of national employment and 76.5% of rural employment, but 93.7% of workers remain informal. (Comex Perú)
The Ministry of Agrarian Development and Irrigation of Peru reported growth in planted potatoes, yellow hard corn and fresh corn during the 2025/26 agricultural campaign. Potato areas increased 0.5%, yellow hard corn 3.3% and fresh corn 3.7%, strengthening the supply of basic foods in the country. (Midagri)
Agroexporter company Sol de Olmos warned that above-normal temperatures may reduce Peru’s garlic production in 2026. The company estimates that national output could fall from the usual 100 thousand tonnes to 60- 70 thousand tonnes, with an impact on the quality of the first harvests in Arequipa. (Sol de Olmos)
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