High Chances of a Strong El Niño Event in Chile
Soybean harvest is projected between 48 and 50 million tonnes for the 2026/27 season, with planted area expansion driven by a shift from corn amid high fertilizer costs. (USDA; Rosario Grain Exchange)
New foreign-exchange rules aimed at making it harder to move dollars out of the country through the so-called blue-chip swap, a parallel mechanism used to send foreign currency abroad outside the official exchange rate. The package also loosened some transactions at the official exchange rate, including the removal of the former US$ 50 cash-withdrawal limit on cards issued in the country, a longer deadline for settling export proceeds, and the end of the prior authorization requirement for paying financial debts. Inflation accelerated to 3.4% in March, up from 2.9% in February and the highest monthly level in one year. In the 12 months through March, the official price index stood at 32.6%. Education and transport led monthly increases, underscoring the ongoing difficulty faced by Javier Milei’s government in bringing inflation down consistently. (Government of Argentina; Indec)
Argentina reached a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund on the second review of its US$ 20 billion program, paving the way for a new US$ 1 billion disbursement, still subject to Executive Board approval. The Fund highlighted stronger reform momentum, broader political support for Javier Milei’s government and improvements in monetary and exchange-rate policy, while the country continues trying to rebuild international reserves amid a more challenging external environment. (FMI)
The 2025/26 orange harvest in the citrus belt of the States of São Paulo and Minas Gerais reached 292.94 million 40.8-kg boxes, up 26.9% from the previous season. Despite the recovery after one of the worst recent harvests, output came in 6.9% below the initial forecast. According to the Citrus Defense Fund, water deficit throughout the cycle, the high incidence of greening, and the larger share of second-bloom fruit prevented a stronger increase in production. (Fundecitrus)
Brazil’s National Supply Company raised its 2025/26 soybean harvest forecast to a record 179.15 million tonnes, up 1.3 million tonnes from the previous estimate and 4.5% above the last cycle. The more favorable weather in March allowed harvesting to reach 85.7% of the planted area, while average national yield was estimated at 3,696 kg/ha, the highest ever recorded. The state agency also increased its 2026 soybean export forecast to 115.4 million tonnes. (Conab)
SLC Agrícola reported a record harvest in 2025 and net revenue of US$ 1.72 billion, highlighted by an average corn yield of 138 bags/ha in the 2024/25 season. The company said it expanded planted area by about 100,000 hectares, invested in digital agriculture, and expects to reach 837,000 hectares in the 2025/26 season. In its integrated report, the company also pointed to sustainability gains, with four farms already showing negative carbon emissions. (SLC Agrícola)
VLI reached a record volume in the Northern Corridor in 2025, reaching about 15 billion useful ton-kilometers, up 4.1% from 2024. The growth also drove Terminal Portuário São Luís, at Itaqui Port, to a historic mark of nearly 5.8 million tonnes handled at Berth 105. According to the company, the result reinforces the corridor’s role in shipping grains, pulp, fuels, and pig iron from the Matopiba region (States of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia). (VLI Logistics)
Caramuru Alimentos expects to expand in the 2025/26 season, with an estimated 50% increase in non-GMO soybean origination in Sorriso, State of Mato Grosso, from 230,000 to 340,000 tonnes. In the State of Goiás, the company targets origination of 2.1 million tonnes, up 10% from the previous cycle. To support this growth, it has increased investments in storage, industrial upgrades, and multimodal logistics. (Caramuru Alimentos)
Cotton sales in the State of Mato Grosso advanced in March, following higher prices of cotton. According to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics, sales of the 2025/26 crop rose 7.03 percentage points in the month to 65.6% of estimated output, while the 2024/25 crop reached 92.1%. The institute said the movement was supported by gains in New York futures and by the geopolitical scenario, which pushed oil prices higher and improved cotton’s competitiveness against synthetic fibers. (IMEA)
Projections indicate an 80% to 90% probability of a strong to extraordinary El Niño event in Chile, potentially starting in late autumn and lasting through spring or even into summer 2026/27. The phenomenon could bring intense rainfall of 40 to 90 mm within 24 hours, linked to atmospheric rivers, increasing the risk of flooding, river overflow and landslides, particularly in central regions. For agriculture, the event may support water replenishment but also poses risks, including off-season rainfall that can lead to fruit cracking, fungal diseases and quality losses in crops such as cherries and grapes. (Citra)
National Land Agency recovered more than 3,100 hectares in operations carried out in Magdalena, Córdoba and Puerto Boyacá, areas previously linked to illegal economies, armed structures, drug trafficking and money laundering. According to the agency, the properties will be allocated to peasant and indigenous communities as part of the agrarian reform. Key recoveries included 239 hectares in the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta, 995 hectares in Córdoba and more than 1,870 hectares in Puerto Boyacá. (ANT)
Agri-food trade surplus dropped by more than 60% in the first two months of 2026, reaching US$ 774 million, which is the lowest level for the period in a decade. The decline was driven by falling agricultural (-12.1%) and agro-industrial (-7.4%) exports, while imports increased, particularly for corn (+20.9%), sorghum (+32.7%) and dairy products (+12.5%). The annual surplus had already fallen by more than 50% between 2024 and 2025. (Government of Mexico)
2025/26 soybean harvest boosted 1Q exports of both soybean and processed products. By March, the country had exported 3.03 million tonnes of soybean, up 37% from the same period in 2025, generating US$ 1.156 billion in revenue. Shipments of soybean oil and meal also increased, lifting total revenue from the soybean complex to US$ 1.44 billion, compared with US$ 1.031 billion in the 1Q of last year. (Capeco)
Paraguayan company Pechugón carried out its first export of Halal-certified chicken meat to Singapore, with an initial shipment of 84,000 kg and expectations of reaching 170,000 kg within the month. The operation marks Paraguay’s entry into a highly demanding market and highlights the expansion potential of certified poultry exports, supported by FAMBRAS Halal. The move aligns with the growth of the global Halal market, projected to reach US$ 1.94 trillion by 2028. (Pechugón)
Agroexports to Singapore reached US$ 19.3 million in 2025, nearly doubling year-on-year and accounting for 22.92% of total exports to the Asian country. Growth was driven mainly by fruits such as blueberries (Vaccinium spp.), as well as a sharp increase in cocoa exports, which surged by more than 3,000% due to high international prices. Lemon essential oil shipments also stood out, totaling US$ 1.4 million. (Government of Peru)
Uruguay’s Rural Federation met on April 14th with World Bank representatives to discuss the AgriConnect project, aimed at transforming small-scale agriculture, generating jobs and strengthening food security. Topics included value chains, irrigation, training, regionalized crop insurance, product differentiation, emergency protocols, generational renewal and the productivity gap among farms. The organization stressed the need for stronger support for family farmers and for policies that add value to Uruguay’s agricultural production. (Uruguay’s Rural Federation)
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