China Soybean Purchase Surges After Argentina Suspends Export Taxes
President Javier Milei confirmed advanced negotiations for a new loan with the US Treasury, aiming to cover maturities of US$ 4 billion in January and US$ 4.5 billion in July of 2026. The move comes amid strong exchange rate pressure and a decline in Argentine assets. (Government of Argentina)
Farmers are preparing for soybean, corn, wheat, sunflower and sorghum crops, evaluating international prices, input costs and weather. Analysts project a corn harvest of up to 57 million tonnes, which could be the largest in 15 years, while wheat is expected to yield 11 to 12 million tonnes for export. Farmers report good soil and water conditions but warn of challenges such as fungal diseases and market volatility. (BCR)
After temporarily suspending retenciones (export taxes) on grains and derivatives, Argentina had a significant acceleration in export operations. China purchased approximately 1.3 million tonnes of soybeans in just two days, taking advantage of the tax exemptions. However, upon quickly reaching the US$ 7 billion ceiling on export declarations, the government reinstated the previous rates (soybean 26%, byproducts 24.5%, corn and wheat 9.5%, among others). Only for meats, the 0% regime remains in place until October 31st, with no volume limit. (AgRadar; Government of Argentina)
Soybean farmers in the State of Mato Grosso need to harvest at least 65 bags/ha to pay costs in the 2025/26 season. According to Gilberto Leal, head of commodities at Granel Corretora, margins are tight, sales remain slow and the dollar at 5.30 BRL is discouraging sales. (Granel Corretora)
The Parliamentary Agricultural Front has once again criticized the Soybean Moratorium, accusing the Federal Government of interfering in a private agreement and using the Attorney General’s Office and the Ministry of the Environment to uphold rules outside the Forest Code. Members of Congress claim more than 4,200 farmers have already accumulated losses exceeding US$ 3.74 billion and are promising to act against the pact. (FPA)
According to Marcos Jank, professor at Insper, US tariff policy has inaugurated an era of uncertainty and risk for global trade. He warns Brazilian agribusiness could suffer from trade diversions, especially in potential negotiations between the US and China involving soybeans. Jank advocates that Brazil develop medium and long-term strategies, uniting the government and the private sector, to address this scenario. (Insper)
Increase of delinquencies in rural credit pushed delays above 90 days and depressed public banks’ profits. Banco do Brasil was the most affected, with a 40% drop in its half-year results, while Caixa Econômica faced a delinquency jump to 7% regarding agricultural loans. Extreme weather events and high interest rates increased risks, leading institutions to restrict credit and increase provisions. (Banco do Brasil; Caixa Econômica Federal)
Coffee prices in Brazil fell more than 10% in the 2H of September. The decline was influenced by rainfall in agricultural regions, profit-taking and adjustments on the New York Stock Exchange. Despite the decline, prices remain historically high due to limited supply, low inventories and firm demand. (Cepea)
Brazil has 20,000 km of waterway potential. The first waterway concession to the private sector is expected in early 2026, notably the Paraguay Waterway, which connects Corumbá to Porto Murtinho, in the State of Mato Grosso do Sul, a strategic port for the transportation of grain from the Central-West region. Six waterways (the Paraguay, Madeira, Tapajós, Tocantins, Amazonas and Lagoa Mirim) are considered the most promising. Currently, only 5% of the country’s cargo is transported by waterways. (Ministry of Ports and Airports)
President of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, announced at the UN that Brazil will be the first country to contribute resources to the Tropical Forests Forever Fund (TFFF), with a US$ 1 billion investment. The initiative, which seeks to raise US$ 125 billion to pay countries for forest preservation, will be detailed at COP30 in November in Belém, State of Pará. The goal is to attract contributions from governments and private investors and strengthen Brazil’s leadership on the climate agenda. (Government of Brazil)
Government is considering taxing up to 7.5% on income from Agribusiness Credit Notes (LCA) and Real Estate Credit Notes (LCI), currently exempt, to offset losses on the Tax on Financial Transactions and balance public finances. The proposal, presented in Congress, faces strong opposition from the agroindustrial sector, which warns of a negative impact on agricultural financing. If approved, the new rate will take effect on January 1st, 2026. (Government of Brazil)
Soybean harvest could hit a record 178 million tonnes, but La Niña is a concern. Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean harvest could exceed the previous one by 3.7%. However, the possible occurrence of La Niña and forecasts of drier, warmer weather in October require attention, especially in the southern region. Exports could reach 112 million tonnes, also a record. (Hedgepoint)
Beef sales to the US are expected to fall to 7,000 tonnes in September, after shipments of 9,000 tonnes in August and 30,000 tonnes in July, according to the Brazilian Association of Meat Exporters. The sharp decline is a result of the additional 40% tariff imposed in August, which raised the total tariff to 76.4%. (Abiec)
Dollar’s exchange rate drop to its lowest level since June of 2024 reduced soybean trading, as the devaluation puts pressure on export parity and domestic prices. Some traders remained cautious regarding the exchange rate scenario and crop conditions. The National Supply Company estimates a record production of 177.6 million tonnes in 2025/26, above the USDA’s projection. (Cepea; Conab)
Government of Antofagasta seeks to transform the city into a key link between South America and the Pacific Ocean. Authorities signed an agreement with the Infrastructure Policy Council to create a long-term logistics plan and coordinate investments for the Bioceanic Corridor, which will connect Brazil, Paraguay, Argentina and Chile via highways and ports, facilitating the export of agricultural, mineral and industrial products. The plan includes investments of US$ 735 million over the next 10 years, improvements to ports and logistics centers and the expansion of cargo handling capacity in the region. (Government of Chile)
Amazon Putumayo River Company – Amapurí is investing in “assaí” berries as a sustainable alternative to coca farming. With over 7,000 hectares cultivated in agroforestry systems, the goal is to reach 20,000 tonnes by 2030. Unlike Brazil, which faces climate and water pressures, Colombian assaí grows in the wild, in very humid regions such as Chocó and Putumayo. (Amapurí)
Coffee production increased 19% in August, reaching 14.7 million bags over the past 12 months, with exports rising and domestic prices exceeding 2.84 million Colombian pesos (COP) per shipment. The 50% tariff imposed by the US on Brazilian coffee encouraged triangulation via Colombia, which increased purchases of Brazilian beans for resale to the US market. (Fedecafé; Cecafé)
Ecuador is expected to harvest more than 650,000 tonnes of cocoa in 2025/26 and could surpass Ghana as the world’s second-largest producer. With an average yield of 800 kg/ha, compared to less than 500 kg/ha in West Africa, Ecuador has already harvested 570,000 tonnes in 2024/25 and projects to reach 800,000 tonnes by 2030. (Anecacao)
Mexico and Chile signed agreements to strengthen partnership in animal and plant health, scientific innovation, water use and sustainable livestock farming. In the same context, Mexico authorized the import of Chilean oranges, previously purchased only from the USA. (Secretariat of Agriculture)
Agricultural exports totaled US$ 31.9 billion from January to July of 2025, a 4.4% drop when compared to the same period of 2024. The decline reflects a combination of factors such as outbreaks of the screwworm fly (Cochliomyia hominivorax), US sanctions on tomatoes and trade tensions under the Treaty between Mexico, the USA and Canada (T-MEC), which regulates trade between the countries. (Bank of Mexico; Secretariat of Agriculture)
Paraguay has become one of the world’s 10 largest beef exporters, a result of the opening of new markets and cooperation between the government and the private sector. The most recent achievement was the authorization from the Philippine Department of Agriculture to import beef, pork and poultry from the country, expanding Paraguay’s presence in Asia. (Senacsa; Fecoprod)
Brazil has opened the market for Peruvian strawberries, creating new opportunities for farmers and strengthening commercial diversification. Blueberry exports, meanwhile, registered significant growth, with 72,000 tonnes exported between May and August, an increase of +137%. However, the sharp drop in international prices, up to -41%, is putting pressure on profitability. Given this scenario, farmers are focusing on new markets, varietal innovation and premium niches to maintain competitiveness. (Senasa)
The Ministry of Agriculture declares an agricultural emergency after frosts caused severe losses in citrus production and affected more than 120 farmers, mainly in the Salto region. The measure should include subsidies from the Agricultural Development Fund to support the recovery of production systems and ensure the continuity of activities. (MGAP)
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