Marengo<\/strong> has a degree in physics and meteorology from the La Molina National Agrarian University in Peru, and a Ph.D. from the University of Wisconsin.<\/p>\n Jos\u00e9 Marengo<\/strong>, general R&D coordinator at Cemaden<\/p><\/div>\n AgriBrasilis – How far can the climate crisis go?<\/strong><\/p>\n Jos\u00e9 Marengo – <\/strong>If global warming continues to intensify, we will experience more intense and frequent extremes: droughts, heavy rains that can cause disasters, heat waves, and more intense hurricanes. All of this can affect human life and the ecosystems and services they provide.<\/p>\n The main people affected would be the most vulnerable populations around the world, which are the ones that contribute the least to greenhouse gas emissions.<\/p>\n AgriBrasilis – What do the IPCC’s models and other panels’ models show for the near future?<\/strong><\/p>\n Jos\u00e9 Marengo – <\/strong>The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) models project future climate up to 2100 considering various socioeconomic trajectories, which reflect levels of warming. All estimates project an increase in temperatures around the world and regional changes in rainfall patterns.<\/p>\n In South America, more abundant and intense rainfall is projected in the southeast of South America and in the eastern Amazon and Northeast. In Central America, rainfall reductions are estimated up to 2100.<\/p>\n The changes will be more intense if global warming reaches 4\u00ba Celsius, a scenario in which adaptation will be difficult. If global warming does not exceed 1.5\u00ba Celsius, the changes will be less intense and adaptation could be feasible.<\/p>\n AgriBrasilis – Climate extremes are becoming increasingly frequent. How will this affect agriculture?<\/strong><\/p>\n Jos\u00e9 Marengo – <\/strong>Yes, and this process is already happening in the present, as a consequence of global warming.<\/p>\n Extreme droughts and heavy rains are occurring more frequently. There is an increased risk of droughts and water deficits for agriculture, droughts and heat waves, which generate water shortages that affect crops. Another factor is extreme rains, which cause flooding, as happened in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, affecting rice crops.<\/p>\n Deforestation in the Amazon and climate change can affect the rain cycle and thus generate drought problems in the agribusiness region, in the States of Mato Grosso do Sul and Mato Grosso, for example.<\/p>\n AgriBrasilis – Could the floods in the South region happen again?<\/strong><\/p>\n Jos\u00e9 Marengo – <\/strong>Yes, and not only in the South, but in other regions of Brazil, and could affect urban and rural areas.<\/p>\n The event that happened in May of 2024 has already shown that agriculture and the population of the State of Rio Grande do Sul are not resilient to the current climate extremes, much less to a climate with more extremes, which is what is estimated for the future.<\/p>\n AgriBrasilis – Are the fires in the sugarcane fields in S\u00e3o Paulo the result of climate change?<\/strong><\/p>\n Jos\u00e9 Marengo – <\/strong>The cause of the fires is human, intentional or unintentional, as is the case in Brazil in general, where more than 95% of fires are human-caused.<\/p>\n What favors the presence of fires is the presence of a drier and hotter climate, as is the case now, where the west of the State of S\u00e3o Paulo is under the influence of droughts and heat waves.<\/p>\n Although the causes of droughts and heat waves are the result of meteorological events, there are already attribution studies that show that these phenomena may be more frequent due to climate changes of human origin.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/agribrasilis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/jose-marengo-1.jpg\")
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“The cause of the fires is human, intentional or unintentional, as is the case in Brazil in general, where more than 95% of fires are human-caused”<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/h4>\n<\/blockquote>\n