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{"id":25310,"date":"2024-09-24T10:06:04","date_gmt":"2024-09-24T13:06:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/agribrasilis.com\/?p=25310"},"modified":"2024-09-24T10:11:15","modified_gmt":"2024-09-24T13:11:15","slug":"mudancas-climaticas-agro","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/agribrasilis.com\/2024\/09\/24\/mudancas-climaticas-agro\/","title":{"rendered":"Brasil \u00e9 vulner\u00e1vel \u00e0s mudan\u00e7as clim\u00e1ticas e agro n\u00e3o \u00e9 exce\u00e7\u00e3o, segundo climatologista"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u201cOs mais afetados seriam as popula\u00e7\u00f5es mais vulner\u00e1veis em todo o mundo, que s\u00e3o as que menos contribuem nas emiss\u00f5es…\u201d<\/p>\n

Jos\u00e9 Antonio Marengo Orsini <\/strong>\u00e9 coordenador-geral de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento do Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais \u2013 Cemaden<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Marengo<\/strong> \u00e9 formado em f\u00edsica e meteorologia pela Universidade Nacional Agr\u00e1ria La Molina do Peru, com doutorado pela Universidade de Wisconsin.<\/p>\n

\n

AgriBrasilis – At\u00e9 onde a crise clim\u00e1tica pode chegar?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jos\u00e9 Marengo –<\/strong> Se o aquecimento continuar se intensificando, vamos ter extremos mais intensos e frequentes: secas, chuvas intensas que geram desastres, ondas de calor, furac\u00f5es mais intensos. Tudo isso pode afetar a vida humana e os ecossistemas e servi\u00e7os que eles oferecem.<\/p>\n

Os mais afetados seriam as popula\u00e7\u00f5es mais vulner\u00e1veis em todo o mundo, que s\u00e3o as que menos contribuem nas emiss\u00f5es de gases de efeito estufa.<\/p>\n

\n

“A causa dos inc\u00eandios \u00e9 humana, intencional ou n\u00e3o intencional, como acontece no Brasil em geral, em que mais de 95% dos inc\u00eandios s\u00e3o humanos”<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/blockquote>\n

AgriBrasilis – O que os modelos do IPCC e de outros pain\u00e9is mostram para o futuro pr\u00f3ximo?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jos\u00e9 Marengo –<\/strong> Os modelos do IPCC projetam clima futuro at\u00e9 2100 considerando varias trajet\u00f3rias socioecon\u00f4micas, que refletem n\u00edveis de aquecimento. Em todas as estimativas se projeta aumento das temperaturas em todo mundo e mudan\u00e7as regionais nos padr\u00f5es de chuvas.<\/p>\n

Na Am\u00e9rica do Sul se projetam chuvas mais abundantes e intensas no sudeste de Am\u00e9rica do Sul e no leste da Amaz\u00f4nia e Nordeste. Na Am\u00e9rica central se projetam redu\u00e7\u00f5es de chuva at\u00e9 2100.<\/p>\n

As mudan\u00e7as ser\u00e3o mais intensas se o aquecimento global alcan\u00e7ar 4\u00ba Celsius, cen\u00e1rio em que a adapta\u00e7\u00e3o ser\u00e1 dif\u00edcil. Se o aquecimento global n\u00e3o ultrapassar 1,5\u00ba Celsius, as mudan\u00e7as ser\u00e3o menos intensas e adapta\u00e7\u00e3o seria vi\u00e1vel.<\/p>\n

AgriBrasilis – Os extremos clim\u00e1ticos est\u00e3o se tornando cada vez mais frequentes. Como isso vai afetar o agro?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jos\u00e9 Marengo –<\/strong> Sim, e esse processo j\u00e1 est\u00e1 acontecendo no presente, como consequ\u00eancia do aquecimento global.<\/p>\n

Est\u00e3o ocorrendo secas extremas e chuvas intensas mais frequentes. Existe um aumento do risco de secas e d\u00e9ficit h\u00eddrico para agricultura, secas e ondas de calor, que geram defici\u00eancia h\u00eddrica que afeta as culturas. Outro fator s\u00e3o as chuvas extremas, que causam inunda\u00e7\u00f5es, como aconteceu em RS, afetando a cultura do arroz.<\/p>\n

O desmatamento na Amaz\u00f4nia e as mudan\u00e7as clim\u00e1ticas podem afetar o ciclo de chuvas e nisso gerar problemas de seca na regi\u00e3o do agroneg\u00f3cio, em MS e MT, por exemplo.<\/p>\n

AgriBrasilis – As inunda\u00e7\u00f5es na regi\u00e3o Sul podem se repetir?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jos\u00e9 Marengo –<\/strong> Sim, e n\u00e3o somente no Sul, mas em outras regi\u00f5es do Brasil, podendo afetar \u00e1reas urbanas e rurais.<\/p>\n

O evento de maio de 2024 j\u00e1 mostrou que a agricultura e a popula\u00e7\u00e3o do RS n\u00e3o s\u00e3o resilientes aos extremos de clima presente, muito menos a um clima com mais extremos, que \u00e9 o que se projeta para o futuro.<\/p>\n

AgriBrasilis – Os inc\u00eandios nas lavouras de cana em S\u00e3o Paulo s\u00e3o fruto das mudan\u00e7as clim\u00e1ticas?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jos\u00e9 Marengo –<\/strong> Na verdade, a causa dos inc\u00eandios \u00e9 humana, intencional ou n\u00e3o intencional, como acontece no Brasil em geral, em que mais de 95% dos inc\u00eandios s\u00e3o humanos.<\/p>\n

O que favorece a presen\u00e7a de fogo \u00e9 a presen\u00e7a de um clima mais seco e quente, como acontece agora, onde o oeste de SP est\u00e1 sob a influ\u00eancia de secas e ondas de calor.<\/p>\n

Ainda que as causas de seca e ondas de calor sejam consequ\u00eancia de eventos meteorol\u00f3gicos, j\u00e1 tem estudos de atribui\u00e7\u00e3o que mostram que esses fen\u00f4menos podem ser mais frequentes devido a mudan\u00e7as de clima de origem antr\u00f3pica.<\/p>\n

AgriBrasilis – Que \u00e1reas no Brasil s\u00e3o as mais vulner\u00e1veis e por qu\u00ea?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jos\u00e9 Marengo –<\/strong> Depende. No caso da vulnerabilidade social, pode-se mencionar o semi\u00e1rido e os povos ind\u00edgenas e comunidades tradicionais. Em termos de biodiversidade: Amaz\u00f4nia, Pantanal e Cerrado. Sobre seguran\u00e7a h\u00eddrica: ter\u00edamos o Centro-Oeste e Sudeste.<\/p>\n

No Sul existem vulnerabilidades relativas aos eventos extremos e desastres, tais como deslizamentos de terra, enchentes e inunda\u00e7\u00f5es. No final, o Brasil como um todo \u00e9 vulner\u00e1vel aos extremos de clima e sofre com as mudan\u00e7as clim\u00e1ticas.<\/p>\n

AgriBrasilis – O Brasil est\u00e1 de fato tratando as mudan\u00e7as clim\u00e1ticas como agenda priorit\u00e1ria?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jos\u00e9 Marengo –<\/strong> No Governo atual, eu diria que sim. O tema de mudan\u00e7as clim\u00e1ticas se trata no n\u00edvel interministerial, mas as a\u00e7\u00f5es est\u00e3o concentradas no Minist\u00e9rio do Meio Ambiente e Mudan\u00e7a do Clima – MMA e Minist\u00e9rio da Ci\u00eancia, Tecnologia e Inova\u00e7\u00e3o – MCTI, que juntos est\u00e3o elaborando os Planos CLIMA Adapta\u00e7\u00e3o e Mitiga\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

LEIA MAIS:<\/p>\n

Irriga\u00e7\u00e3o por gotejamento permite colher at\u00e9 12 safras sem necessidade de reforma do canavial<\/a><\/h3>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cOs mais afetados seriam as popula\u00e7\u00f5es mais vulner\u00e1veis em todo o mundo, que s\u00e3o as que menos contribuem nas emiss\u00f5es…\u201d Jos\u00e9 Antonio Marengo Orsini \u00e9…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":25323,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[93,24],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBrasil \u00e9 vulner\u00e1vel \u00e0s mudan\u00e7as clim\u00e1ticas e agro n\u00e3o \u00e9 exce\u00e7\u00e3o, segundo climatologista - Agribrasilis - Inside Agribusiness<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"O evento de maio de 2024 j\u00e1 mostrou que a agricultura e a popula\u00e7\u00e3o do RS n\u00e3o s\u00e3o resilientes aos extremos de clima presente...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/agribrasilis.com\/2024\/09\/24\/mudancas-climaticas-agro\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Brasil \u00e9 vulner\u00e1vel \u00e0s mudan\u00e7as clim\u00e1ticas e agro n\u00e3o \u00e9 exce\u00e7\u00e3o, segundo climatologista - 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