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Marcelo Mello<\/strong>,\u00a0director of fertilizers at StoneX Brasil<\/p><\/div>\n AgriBrasilis – Why is there a delay in fertilizer purchases for 2024 in Brazil? What are the consequences?<\/strong><\/p>\n Marcelo Mello –<\/strong> The main reasons for the delay in purchases, especially for the demands of the 1H of 2024, are the delay and uncertainties regarding the planting of the 2023\/24 summer crop; an unattractive exchange ratio, mainly between nitrogen fertilizers and corn, which prevailed until early November 2023; and the high interest rates.<\/p>\n The most serious consequence of this delay is the impact it may have on the delivery of fertilizers due to logistical problems that will probably be worse because of this.<\/p>\n AgriBrasilis – What are the most significant months for farmers to purchase fertilizers?<\/strong><\/p>\n Marcelo Mello –<\/strong> Soybean and corn represent approximately 60% of Brazilian fertilizer demand. Considering that soybean planting is concentrated between the months of September and November, the corn crop is concentrated between January and February and the acquisition of fertilizers is normally carried out two to three months before planting, so the majority of the purchases tend to happen between the months of June to August and October and November.<\/p>\n AgriBrasilis – How much have fertilizers represented in production costs?<\/strong><\/p>\n Marcelo Mello –<\/strong> For grains, such as soybeans and corn, fertilizers represent around 30 to 40% of the production cost in the main Brazilian agricultural regions.<\/p>\n AgriBrasilis – What marked the fertilizer market in 2023?<\/strong><\/p>\n Marcelo Mello –<\/strong> Unlike the last two years, where price volatility was extremely high, in the 1H of 2023 the NPK fertilizers prices were still decreasing, which is a process that began in mid-2022, and then they entered a sideways price trend from the 2H onwards. Less volatile prices and at a lower level than in have 2022 encouraged a recovery in consumption\/deliveries during 2023. As a reference, in 2022, consumption fell by 10%, but in 2023 the estimate is that it will return to the historic record levels reached in 2021.<\/p>\n AgriBrasilis – Did the earthquake in Morocco in September harm the phosphate market? Why?<\/strong><\/p>\n Marcelo Mello –<\/strong> Considering that Morocco was the world’s largest exporter of high-grade phosphates in 2022, according to official data from the International Fertilizer Association, the market raised a warning signal when the earthquake hit the country in mid-September of 2023.<\/p>\n However, it soon became clear that the earthquake had not generated any relevant impact on the phosphate production and export chain.<\/p>\n AgriBrasilis – How is the market reacting to the possible reactivation of Petrobras’ factories?<\/strong><\/p>\n
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